ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON GOLD PRICES IN VIETNAM: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY AND DEGLOBALIZATION

Abstract

In the context of growing global economic uncertainty, gold prices in Vietnam have surged significantly since 2024 and reached a historical peak in August 2025. This study aims to analyze the macroeconomic factors influencing domestic gold prices, including interest rates, exchange rates, oil prices, military conflicts, and the trend of deglobalization. Based on a synthesis of modern economic theories and secondary data from academic research both in Vietnam and internationally, the study reviews empirical evidence drawn from established quantitative models such as VAR, VECM, GARCH, and Copula. The findings indicate that: (i) interest rates have an inverse relationship with gold prices in both the short and long run, consistent with the opportunity cost theory of investment; (ii) the USD/VND exchange rate and domestic gold prices exhibit a positive correlation, especially when the VND depreciates under external pressures; (iii) the traditional linkage between oil and gold prices is weakening amid the global shift toward renewable energy; (iv) military conflicts and geopolitical tensions continue to reinforce gold’s role as a safe-haven asset; and (v) the rise of deglobalization—through increasing protectionism and fragmented supply chains—has heightened systemic risk, thus boosting demand for gold as a defensive asset. The study proposes an integrated framework of key macroeconomic drivers affecting gold prices in Vietnam and offers policy implications for macroeconomic management and investment strategies in an increasingly risk-sensitive global environment.